Over 1.5 goals@1.57
Over 1.5
64%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 13Sunday, 25 October 2026 · ND Soft Stadium Yamagata
Montedio Yamagata
16th · 16 pts0–2FULL TIME
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
6th · 23 pts39% Montedio
29% Draw
31% Tegevajaro
OUR PICK
Montedio Yamagata to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.54
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.00
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.54X3.4123.20
Goals 2.5Over2.55Under1.58
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.58
Under 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.77
NG
57%
Double chance@1.42
12
71%
Season stats
Montedio YamagataTegevajaro Miyazaki0.9Goals per game1.5
1.0Conceded per game1.1
1.14Points per game1.64
36%Win rate43%
-1Goal difference5
4Form, last 5 (pts)11
Montedio Yamagata form
WLLDLA Vanraure Hachinohe1–2
H Tegevajaro Miyazaki0–2
H Consadole Sapporo0–2
A Fujieda MYFC0–0
H Vegalta Sendai0–1
Tegevajaro Miyazaki form
WWWWDH Tochigi City2–0
H Oita Trinita2–0
A Montedio Yamagata0–2
H Blaublitz Akita2–1
H Jubilo Iwata1–1
Head to head
0
Montedio
0
Draw
1
Tegevajaro
Oct 2026Montedio Yamagata – Tegevajaro Miyazaki0–2
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Montedio Yamagata 39%, the draw 29%, Tegevajaro Miyazaki 31%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.16 for Montedio Yamagata, 1.00 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Montedio Yamagata sit 16th on 16 points; Tegevajaro Miyazaki are 6th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.