Over 1.5 goals@1.48
Over 1.5
67%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 6Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Stade Louis II
Monaco
7th · 15 pts2–2FULL TIME
Toulouse
11th · 10 pts48% Monaco
27% Draw
25% Toulouse
OUR PICK
Monaco to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.08
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.92
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.08X3.6824.05
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.69
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.83
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.69
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.83
NG
55%
Double chance@1.33
1X
75%
Season stats
MonacoToulouse1.3Goals per game1.3
1.1Conceded per game1.4
1.67Points per game1.11
44%Win rate22%
2Goal difference-1
5Form, last 5 (pts)8
Monaco form
LDWLWA Paris FC3–1
H Lille1–1
H SC Freiburg3–0
A Lorient1–0
A CSKA Sofia1–2
Toulouse form
LDWDLA Marseille2–0
H Estac Troyes0–0
A Le Mans0–3
A Monaco2–2
H PAU2–3
Head to head
2
Monaco
3
Draw
0
Toulouse
Oct 2026Monaco – Toulouse2–2
Apr 2026Toulouse – Monaco2–2
Oct 2025Monaco – Toulouse1–0
Mar 2025Toulouse – Monaco1–1
Dec 2024Monaco – Toulouse2–0
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Monaco slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.08 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.40 for Monaco, 0.92 for Toulouse), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Monaco sit 7th on 15 points; Toulouse are 11th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.