Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
85%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Stade Louis II
Monaco
6th · 6 pts3–0FULL TIME
SC Freiburg
18th · 3 pts47% Monaco
22% Draw
30% SC
OUR PICK
Monaco to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.11
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.49
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.11X4.5023.29
Goals 2.5Over1.52Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.52NG2.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.52
GG
66%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Season stats
MonacoSC Freiburg2.5Goals per game1.5
0.5Conceded per game2.5
3.00Points per game1.50
100%Win rate50%
4Goal difference-2
6Form, last 5 (pts)3
Monaco form
LDWLWA Paris FC3–1
H Lille1–1
H SC Freiburg3–0
A Lorient1–0
A CSKA Sofia1–2
SC Freiburg form
WWLLLA FC Augsburg1–2
H VfL Wolfsburg3–2
H Bayern München1–3
A Monaco3–0
A Bayer Leverkusen2–1
Head to head
1
Monaco
0
Draw
0
SC
Oct 2026Monaco – SC Freiburg3–0
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model makes Monaco slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.11 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.90 for Monaco, 1.49 for SC Freiburg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Monaco sit 6th on 6 points; SC Freiburg are 18th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.