Over 1.5 goals@1.67
Over 1.5
60%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 8Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Stade Louis II
Monaco
7th · 15 pts1–1FULL TIME
Lille
2nd · 18 pts33% Monaco
31% Draw
37% Lille
OUR PICK
Lille to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.72
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.05
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.07X3.2622.72
Goals 2.5Over2.86Under1.49
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.68
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.49
Under 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.68
NG
60%
Double chance@1.44
12
69%
Season stats
MonacoLille1.3Goals per game1.3
1.1Conceded per game0.7
1.67Points per game2.00
44%Win rate56%
2Goal difference6
5Form, last 5 (pts)8
Monaco form
LDWLWA Paris FC3–1
H Lille1–1
H SC Freiburg3–0
A Lorient1–0
A CSKA Sofia1–2
Lille form
WDLDLH Lens1–0
A Monaco1–1
H Galatasaray2–4
H Stade Brestois 291–1
A Arsenal3–0
Head to head
0
Monaco
2
Draw
3
Lille
Oct 2026Monaco – Lille1–1
May 2026Monaco – Lille0–1
Aug 2025Lille – Monaco1–0
Feb 2025Lille – Monaco2–1
Oct 2024Monaco – Lille0–0
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Stade Brestois 299+412
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Monaco 33%, the draw 31%, Lille 37%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.72 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (0.97 for Monaco, 1.05 for Lille), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Monaco sit 7th on 15 points; Lille are 2nd on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.