Over 1.5 goals@1.23
Over 1.5
81%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3Thursday, 5 November 2026 · Stade Louis II
Monaco
6th · 6 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
FC Nordsjaelland
19th · 2 pts61% Monaco
21% Draw
19% FC
OUR PICK
Monaco to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.65
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.04
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.65X4.8025.40
Goals 2.5Over1.68Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.78NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.68
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.78
GG
56%
Double chance@1.23
1X
81%
Season stats
MonacoFC Nordsjaelland2.5Goals per game1.5
0.5Conceded per game1.5
3.00Points per game1.00
100%Win rate0%
4Goal difference0
6Form, last 5 (pts)2
Monaco form
LDWLWA Paris FC3–1
H Lille1–1
H SC Freiburg3–0
A Lorient1–0
A CSKA Sofia1–2
FC Nordsjaelland form
LWDDDH FC Midtjylland2–3
A Esbjerg0–1
A Silkeborg1–1
H CSKA Sofia2–2
A Lyngby3–3
Head to head
0
Monaco
0
Draw
0
FC
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model makes Monaco clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (2.05 for Monaco, 1.04 for FC Nordsjaelland), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Monaco sit 6th on 6 points; FC Nordsjaelland are 19th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.