Over 1.5 goals@1.63
Over 1.5
61%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 3Sunday, 25 October 2026
Mombasa Elite
18th · 1 pts0–0FULL TIME
Kenya Police
4th · 8 pts20% Mombasa
28% Draw
51% Kenya
OUR PICK
Kenya Police to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.95
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.34
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.91X3.5321.95
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.52
Both scoreGG2.48NG1.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.62
NG
62%
Double chance@1.26
X2
80%
Season stats
Mombasa EliteKenya Police0.4Goals per game0.8
1.6Conceded per game0.6
0.20Points per game1.60
0%Win rate40%
-6Goal difference1
1Form, last 5 (pts)8
Mombasa Elite form
LLDLLA Migori Youth2–0
A KCB3–1
H Kenya Police0–0
A Mara Sugar2–1
H Homeboyz0–1
Kenya Police form
WWDLDA Shabana0–1
H Ulinzi Stars1–0
A Mombasa Elite0–0
H AFC Leopards1–2
A Migori Youth1–1
Head to head
0
Mombasa
1
Draw
0
Kenya
Oct 2026Mombasa Elite – Kenya Police0–0
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
4Kenya Police5+18
53K5-18
6Murang'a SEAL5+27
7Tusker3+36
8Migori Youth4+26
9APS Bomet5+26
10Shabana506
Match preview
Our model makes Kenya Police clear favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.95 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (0.73 for Mombasa Elite, 1.34 for Kenya Police), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Mombasa Elite sit 18th on 1 points; Kenya Police are 4th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.