KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 1Wednesday, 14 October 2026

Mombasa Elite

18th · 1 pts

0–1FULL TIME

Homeboyz

16th · 4 pts

36% Mombasa

33% Draw

31% Homeboyz

OUR PICK

Mombasa Elite to win

Model probability 36% · fair odds

2.76

Expected goals

0.96 – 0.87

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.76X3.0823.19

Goals 2.5Over3.37Under1.38

Both scoreGG2.62NG1.56

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.83

Over 1.5

55%

Over/Under 2.5@1.38

Under 2.5

72%

Both teams to score@1.56

64%

Double chance@1.46

69%

Season stats

Mombasa EliteHomeboyz

0.4Goals per game0.5

1.6Conceded per game1.0

0.20Points per game1.00

0%Win rate25%

-6Goal difference-2

1Form, last 5 (pts)4

Mombasa Elite form

LLDLL

A Migori Youth2–0

A KCB3–1

H Kenya Police0–0

A Mara Sugar2–1

H Homeboyz0–1

Homeboyz form

LLDW

A AFC Leopards2–0

H GOR Mahia0–1

H Ulinzi Stars1–1

A Mombasa Elite0–1

Head to head

Mombasa

Draw

Homeboyz

Oct 2026Mombasa Elite – Homeboyz0–1

FKF Premier League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1GOR Mahia5+412

2KCB5+310

3AFC Leopards5+39

4Kenya Police5+18

53K5-18

6Murang'a SEAL5+27

7Tusker3+36

8Migori Youth4+26

9APS Bomet5+26

10Shabana506

Match preview

Our model sees little between the sides: Mombasa Elite 36%, the draw 33%, Homeboyz 31%.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.76 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 1.8 goals in total (0.96 for Mombasa Elite, 0.87 for Homeboyz), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Mombasa Elite sit 18th on 1 points; Homeboyz are 16th on 4.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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