Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
86%
NOREliteserien · Matchday 12Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Aker Stadion
Molde
3rd · 43 pts5–1FULL TIME
Fredrikstad
11th · 29 pts67% Molde
18% Draw
15% Fredrikstad
OUR PICK
Molde to win
Model probability 67% · fair odds
1.50
Expected goals
2.41 – 1.07
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.50X5.5726.57
Goals 2.5Over1.48Under2.86
Both scoreGG1.67NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.48
Over 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.67
GG
60%
Double chance@1.18
1X
85%
Season stats
MoldeFredrikstad2.4Goals per game1.2
1.6Conceded per game1.8
1.72Points per game1.16
52%Win rate32%
20Goal difference-15
7Form, last 5 (pts)2
Molde form
LWWWDA Brann3–2
H Stromsgodset4–1
H Fredrikstad5–1
H Start6–1
A Lillestrom2–2
Fredrikstad form
LWLLDH Rosenborg0–3
A Ranheim2–5
A Molde5–1
A Viking3–2
H Tromso1–1
Head to head
2
Molde
1
Draw
2
Fredrikstad
Oct 2026Molde – Fredrikstad5–1
Sept 2025Molde – Fredrikstad1–2
Jul 2025Fredrikstad – Molde4–2
Dec 2024Fredrikstad – Molde0–0
Sept 2024Molde – Fredrikstad6–1
Eliteserien table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Viking25+3859
2Bodo/Glimt25+3859
3Molde25+2043
4Rosenborg25+1843
5Lillestrom25+342
6Tromso25+540
7Brann25+332
8Valerenga25-332
9Sarpsborg 08 FF25-731
10KFUM Oslo25-931
Match preview
Our model makes Molde clear favourites, giving them a 67% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.50 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.41 for Molde, 1.07 for Fredrikstad), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Molde sit 3rd on 43 points; Fredrikstad are 11th on 29.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.