Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
ITASerie B · Matchday 10Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Alberto Braglia
Modena
2nd · 20 pts1–1FULL TIME
Mantova
4th · 18 pts51% Modena
25% Draw
25% Mantova
OUR PICK
Modena to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.97
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.07
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.97X4.0724.03
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.89
GG
53%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
ModenaMantova1.8Goals per game1.5
1.0Conceded per game1.1
2.00Points per game1.80
60%Win rate50%
8Goal difference4
10Form, last 5 (pts)7
Modena form
No recent matches.
Mantova form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Modena
0
Draw
0
Mantova
These sides haven't met recently.
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo9+1023
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli9+1018
4Mantova10+418
5Pisa9+515
6Benevento10+415
7Padova10-114
8Sudtirol10+114
9Hellas Verona9+312
10Avellino9+312
Match preview
Our model makes Modena slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.97 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.64 for Modena, 1.07 for Mantova), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Modena sit 2nd on 20 points; Mantova are 4th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.