Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
ITASerie B · Matchday 6Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Alberto Braglia
Modena
2nd · 20 pts3–2FULL TIME
Hellas Verona
7th · 15 pts46% Modena
25% Draw
29% Hellas
OUR PICK
Modena to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.18
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.18
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.18X3.9823.45
Goals 2.5Over1.95Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.83NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.95
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.83
GG
55%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
ModenaHellas Verona1.8Goals per game1.9
1.0Conceded per game1.3
2.00Points per game1.50
60%Win rate40%
8Goal difference6
10Form, last 5 (pts)8
Modena form
DWWLWH Mantova1–1
A Vicenza Virtus1–2
H Cesena3–0
A Carrarese2–1
H Hellas Verona3–2
Hellas Verona form
WWDDLH Carrarese3–0
A Juve Stabia0–1
H Pisa1–1
H Catanzaro2–2
A Modena3–2
Head to head
1
Modena
0
Draw
1
Hellas
Oct 2026Modena – Hellas Verona3–2
Jul 2021Hellas Verona – Modena3–2
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Modena slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.18 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.55 for Modena, 1.18 for Hellas Verona), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Modena sit 2nd on 20 points; Hellas Verona are 7th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.