Over 1.5 goals@1.44
Over 1.5
69%
SWEAllsvenskan · Matchday 23Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Strandvallen
Mjallby AIF
12th · 27 pts1–1FULL TIME
Degerfors IF
14th · 20 pts53% Mjallby
26% Draw
22% Degerfors
OUR PICK
Mjallby AIF to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.88
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.90X3.8724.62
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.76
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.85
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.85
NG
54%
Double chance@1.28
1X
78%
Season stats
Mjallby AIFDegerfors IF1.1Goals per game0.8
1.6Conceded per game1.7
1.00Points per game0.74
22%Win rate19%
-13Goal difference-24
5Form, last 5 (pts)1
Mjallby AIF form
DWLDLH Kalmar FF0–0
A Orgryte IS1–2
H Hammarby FF0–2
A FC Iberia 19991–1
A Vasteras SK FK1–0
Degerfors IF form
LLLLDA Djurgardens IF2–1
H Vasteras SK FK0–3
A BK Hacken4–0
H Kalmar FF1–2
A Mjallby AIF1–1
Head to head
4
Mjallby
1
Draw
0
Degerfors
Oct 2026Mjallby AIF – Degerfors IF1–1
May 2026Degerfors IF – Mjallby AIF1–4
Sept 2025Degerfors IF – Mjallby AIF0–1
Apr 2025Mjallby AIF – Degerfors IF4–1
Nov 2023Degerfors IF – Mjallby AIF1–2
Allsvenskan table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hammarby FF27+3455
2Sirius26+2255
3Djurgardens IF27+3052
4BK Hacken27+1849
5IF Elfsborg27+1446
6Vasteras SK FK27+244
7Malmo FF27+640
8AIK Stockholm27-438
9IFK Goteborg27-1038
10Gais27+737
Match preview
Our model makes Mjallby AIF clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.53 for Mjallby AIF, 0.88 for Degerfors IF), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Mjallby AIF sit 12th on 27 points; Degerfors IF are 14th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.