Over 1.5 goals@1.50
Over 1.5
66%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 9Sunday, 11 October 2026 · K's Denki Stadium Mito
Mito Hollyhock
19th · 9 pts1–2FULL TIME
Shimizu S-pulse
13th · 14 pts46% Mito
28% Draw
26% Shimizu
OUR PICK
Mito Hollyhock to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.18
Expected goals
1.34 – 0.94
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.18X3.6023.81
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.66
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.82
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.82
NG
55%
Double chance@1.36
1X
74%
Season stats
Mito HollyhockShimizu S-pulse0.9Goals per game0.8
1.9Conceded per game1.7
0.69Points per game1.08
15%Win rate31%
-13Goal difference-12
0Form, last 5 (pts)4
Mito Hollyhock form
LLLLLH Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–3
H Cerezo Osaka1–3
A FC Tokyo6–0
A Fagiano Okayama2–0
H Urawa0–1
Shimizu S-pulse form
LLLDLA Kyoto Sanga2–0
A Sanfrecce Hiroshima4–0
H Machida Zelvia0–5
H Gamba Osaka2–2
A Yokohama F. Marinos2–1
Head to head
0
Mito
3
Draw
2
Shimizu
Oct 2026Mito Hollyhock – Shimizu S-pulse1–2
Oct 2024Mito Hollyhock – Shimizu S-pulse2–2
May 2024Shimizu S-pulse – Mito Hollyhock2–1
Nov 2023Mito Hollyhock – Shimizu S-pulse1–1
Feb 2023Shimizu S-pulse – Mito Hollyhock0–0
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Mito Hollyhock slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.18 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.34 for Mito Hollyhock, 0.94 for Shimizu S-pulse), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Mito Hollyhock sit 19th on 9 points; Shimizu S-pulse are 13th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.