Over 1.5 goals@1.49
Over 1.5
67%
BRASerie A · Matchday 32Saturday, 24 October 2026 · José Maria de Campos Maia
Mirassol
16th · 37 pts1–1FULL TIME
Sao Paulo
10th · 43 pts36% Mirassol
28% Draw
36% Sao
OUR PICK
Mirassol to win
Model probability 36% · fair odds
2.77
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.15
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.77X3.5322.81
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.69
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.88
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.69
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.88
NG
53%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
MirassolSao Paulo1.1Goals per game1.2
1.4Conceded per game1.2
1.12Points per game1.30
27%Win rate36%
-10Goal difference0
5Form, last 5 (pts)7
Mirassol form
LDWLDA Corinthians2–0
H Sao Paulo1–1
H Internacional2–0
A Bahia1–0
A RB Bragantino1–1
Sao Paulo form
LDWWLA Bahia3–2
A Mirassol1–1
H Vasco DA Gama1–0
H Vitoria2–1
A Cruzeiro2–0
Head to head
3
Mirassol
1
Draw
1
Sao
Oct 2026Mirassol – Sao Paulo1–1
Apr 2026Sao Paulo – Mirassol1–0
Jan 2026Mirassol – Sao Paulo3–0
Oct 2025Mirassol – Sao Paulo3–0
May 2025Sao Paulo – Mirassol0–2
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Mirassol 36%, the draw 28%, Sao Paulo 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.77 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.16 for Mirassol, 1.15 for Sao Paulo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Mirassol sit 16th on 37 points; Sao Paulo are 10th on 43.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.