Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 30Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Allianz Field
Minnesota United FC
12th · 41 pts3–2FULL TIME
St. Louis City
4th · 51 pts37% Minnesota
24% Draw
40% St.
OUR PICK
St. Louis City to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.50
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.63
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.74X4.2522.50
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.58NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.58
GG
63%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
Minnesota United FCSt. Louis City1.6Goals per game1.8
1.7Conceded per game1.5
1.24Points per game1.55
30%Win rate42%
-4Goal difference10
11Form, last 5 (pts)1
Minnesota United FC form
WWDWDA Los Angeles FC0–1
H Sporting Kansas City3–1
A Houston Dynamo0–0
H St. Louis City3–2
A Colorado Rapids2–2
St. Louis City form
LLLDLH San Diego0–1
H Portland Timbers2–3
A Real Salt Lake3–0
A Columbus Crew0–0
A Minnesota United FC3–2
Head to head
4
Minnesota
0
Draw
1
St.
Oct 2026Minnesota United FC – St. Louis City3–2
Sept 2026St. Louis City – Minnesota United FC4–2
Jul 2025St. Louis City – Minnesota United FC1–2
May 2025Minnesota United FC – St. Louis City3–2
May 2025Minnesota United FC – St. Louis City3–0
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Minnesota United FC 37%, the draw 24%, St. Louis City 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.50 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.55 for Minnesota United FC, 1.63 for St. Louis City), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Minnesota United FC sit 12th on 41 points; St. Louis City are 4th on 51.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.