Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 32Thursday, 29 October 2026 · Allianz Field
Minnesota United FC
13th · 38 pts3–1FULL TIME
Sporting Kansas City
15th · 23 pts65% Minnesota
18% Draw
17% Sporting
OUR PICK
Minnesota United FC to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.53
Expected goals
2.47 – 1.19
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.53X5.5725.96
Goals 2.5Over1.42Under3.25
Both scoreGG1.57NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.42
Over 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.57
GG
64%
Double chance@1.20
1X
83%
Season stats
Minnesota United FCSporting Kansas City1.6Goals per game1.2
1.8Conceded per game2.5
1.19Points per game0.70
28%Win rate18%
-6Goal difference-42
9Form, last 5 (pts)1
Minnesota United FC form
WDWDDH Sporting Kansas City3–1
A Houston Dynamo0–0
H St. Louis City3–2
A Colorado Rapids2–2
H Houston Dynamo2–2
Sporting Kansas City form
DLLLLH FC Dallas1–1
A Minnesota United FC3–1
H Austin1–2
H Real Salt Lake1–3
A Nashville SC4–0
Head to head
3
Minnesota
1
Draw
1
Sporting
Oct 2026Minnesota United FC – Sporting Kansas City3–1
Jul 2026Sporting Kansas City – Minnesota United FC2–1
Feb 2026Sporting Kansas City – Minnesota United FC0–3
Oct 2025Minnesota United FC – Sporting Kansas City3–0
Mar 2025Sporting Kansas City – Minnesota United FC3–3
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC32+1547
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders33-343
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model makes Minnesota United FC clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.53 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (2.47 for Minnesota United FC, 1.19 for Sporting Kansas City), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Minnesota United FC sit 13th on 38 points; Sporting Kansas City are 15th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.