Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 28Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Allianz Field
Minnesota United FC
13th · 38 pts2–2FULL TIME
Houston Dynamo
5th · 51 pts38% Minnesota
26% Draw
35% Houston
OUR PICK
Minnesota United FC to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.60
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.26
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.60X3.7822.85
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.92
Both scoreGG1.90NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.90
GG
53%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
Minnesota United FCHouston Dynamo1.6Goals per game1.3
1.8Conceded per game1.2
1.19Points per game1.59
28%Win rate44%
-6Goal difference3
9Form, last 5 (pts)7
Minnesota United FC form
WDWDDH Sporting Kansas City3–1
A Houston Dynamo0–0
H St. Louis City3–2
A Colorado Rapids2–2
H Houston Dynamo2–2
Houston Dynamo form
WDDDDA Seattle Sounders0–1
H Minnesota United FC0–0
H FC Dallas2–2
A San Diego3–3
A Minnesota United FC2–2
Head to head
1
Minnesota
3
Draw
1
Houston
Oct 2026Houston Dynamo – Minnesota United FC0–0
Oct 2026Minnesota United FC – Houston Dynamo2–2
Jun 2025Minnesota United FC – Houston Dynamo3–1
May 2025Houston Dynamo – Minnesota United FC2–0
Jul 2024Houston Dynamo – Minnesota United FC1–1
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC32+1547
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders33-343
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Minnesota United FC 38%, the draw 26%, Houston Dynamo 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.60 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.33 for Minnesota United FC, 1.26 for Houston Dynamo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Minnesota United FC sit 13th on 38 points; Houston Dynamo are 5th on 51.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.