Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 13Saturday, 31 October 2026 · The Den
Millwall
12th · 18 pts4–1FULL TIME
Derby
23rd · 7 pts68% Millwall
18% Draw
14% Derby
OUR PICK
Millwall to win
Model probability 68% · fair odds
1.46
Expected goals
2.36 – 0.96
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.46X5.6027.28
Goals 2.5Over1.55Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.79NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.55
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.79
GG
56%
Double chance@1.16
1X
86%
Season stats
MillwallDerby1.8Goals per game0.8
1.6Conceded per game1.9
1.38Points per game0.54
38%Win rate8%
2Goal difference-14
7Form, last 5 (pts)2
Millwall form
WLDLWH Derby4–1
A Portsmouth2–1
H Lincoln2–2
H Swansea0–1
A Preston0–1
Derby form
LDLLDA Millwall4–1
A Sheffield Utd1–1
H Stoke City0–1
A QPR4–1
H Wrexham1–1
Head to head
3
Millwall
2
Draw
0
Derby
Oct 2026Millwall – Derby4–1
Mar 2026Millwall – Derby1–0
Dec 2025Derby – Millwall1–1
Feb 2025Derby – Millwall0–1
Oct 2024Millwall – Derby1–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Millwall clear favourites, giving them a 68% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.46 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.36 for Millwall, 0.96 for Derby), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Millwall sit 12th on 18 points; Derby are 23rd on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.