Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 15Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Estadio El Campin
Millonarios
10th · 26 pts4–1FULL TIME
Jaguares
16th · 18 pts62% Millonarios
21% Draw
17% Jaguares
OUR PICK
Millonarios to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.62
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.95
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.62X4.7525.81
Goals 2.5Over1.77Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.77
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.89
GG
53%
Double chance@1.21
1X
83%
Season stats
MillonariosJaguares1.6Goals per game1.1
1.2Conceded per game1.7
1.37Points per game0.95
37%Win rate26%
8Goal difference-13
7Form, last 5 (pts)6
Millonarios form
DWDDDH Once Caldas1–1
H Jaguares4–1
A Fortaleza FC1–1
A Barranquilla1–1
A Independiente Medellin2–2
Jaguares form
LWLLWA Deportivo Pereira1–0
H Llaneros1–0
A Santa Fe2–1
A Millonarios4–1
H Deportes Tolima3–2
Head to head
1
Millonarios
1
Draw
3
Jaguares
Oct 2026Millonarios – Jaguares4–1
Apr 2026Jaguares – Millonarios1–0
Sept 2024Millonarios – Jaguares0–0
Mar 2024Jaguares – Millonarios2–1
Aug 2023Jaguares – Millonarios2–0
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Millonarios clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.62 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (2.00 for Millonarios, 0.95 for Jaguares), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Millonarios sit 10th on 26 points; Jaguares are 16th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.