KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 5Sunday, 1 November 2026

Migori Youth

5th · 6 pts

2–0FULL TIME

Mombasa Elite

18th · 1 pts

64% Migori

25% Draw

11% Mombasa

OUR PICK

Migori Youth to win

Model probability 64% · fair odds

1.56

Expected goals

1.51 – 0.44

Confidence

High

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.56X3.9429.47

Goals 2.5Over3.04Under1.45

Both scoreGG3.37NG1.38

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.72

Over 1.5

58%

Over/Under 2.5@1.45

Under 2.5

69%

Both teams to score@1.38

72%

Double chance@1.12

89%

Season stats

Migori YouthMombasa Elite

1.0Goals per game0.4

0.5Conceded per game1.6

1.50Points per game0.20

25%Win rate0%

2Goal difference-6

6Form, last 5 (pts)1

Migori Youth form

WDDD

H Mombasa Elite2–0

A Shabana1–1

H Mathare United0–0

H Kenya Police1–1

Mombasa Elite form

LLDLL

A Migori Youth2–0

A KCB3–1

H Kenya Police0–0

A Mara Sugar2–1

H Homeboyz0–1

Head to head

Migori

Draw

Mombasa

Nov 2026Migori Youth – Mombasa Elite2–0

May 2026Mombasa Elite – Migori Youth0–0

Dec 2025Migori Youth – Mombasa Elite3–2

Apr 2025Mombasa Elite – Migori Youth4–1

Jan 2025Migori Youth – Mombasa Elite0–1

FKF Premier League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1GOR Mahia5+412

2KCB5+310

3AFC Leopards5+39

4Murang'a SEAL5+27

5Migori Youth4+26

6APS Bomet5+26

7Mara Sugar4+16

8Shabana4+16

9Kenya Police405

10Mathare United405

Match preview

Our model makes Migori Youth clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.56 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.51 for Migori Youth, 0.44 for Mombasa Elite), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Migori Youth sit 5th on 6 points; Mombasa Elite are 18th on 1.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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