Over 1.5 goals@1.94
Over 1.5
52%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 3Saturday, 24 October 2026
Migori Youth
5th · 6 pts0–0FULL TIME
Mathare United
10th · 5 pts46% Migori
32% Draw
21% Mathare
OUR PICK
Migori Youth to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.17
Expected goals
1.09 – 0.64
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.17X3.0824.67
Goals 2.5Over3.77Under1.33
Both scoreGG3.04NG1.46
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.33
Under 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.46
NG
69%
Double chance@1.27
1X
79%
Season stats
Migori YouthMathare United1.0Goals per game0.5
0.5Conceded per game0.5
1.50Points per game1.25
25%Win rate25%
2Goal difference0
6Form, last 5 (pts)5
Migori Youth form
WDDDH Mombasa Elite2–0
A Shabana1–1
H Mathare United0–0
H Kenya Police1–1
Mathare United form
WDLDWH Tusker2–1
A Migori Youth0–0
A KCB1–0
H APS Bomet0–0
H Bandari1–0
Head to head
0
Migori
2
Draw
1
Mathare
Oct 2026Migori Youth – Mathare United0–0
Apr 2024Mathare United – Migori Youth2–0
Sept 2023Migori Youth – Mathare United0–0
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
4Murang'a SEAL5+27
5Migori Youth4+26
6APS Bomet5+26
7Mara Sugar4+16
8Shabana4+16
9Kenya Police405
10Mathare United405
Match preview
Our model makes Migori Youth slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 32% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.17 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.7 goals in total (1.09 for Migori Youth, 0.64 for Mathare United), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Migori Youth sit 5th on 6 points; Mathare United are 10th on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.