KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 1Sunday, 11 October 2026

Migori Youth

5th · 6 pts

1–1FULL TIME

Kenya Police

9th · 5 pts

44% Migori

36% Draw

20% Kenya

OUR PICK

Migori Youth to win

Model probability 44% · fair odds

2.25

Expected goals

0.95 – 0.53

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.25X2.8025.03

Goals 2.5Over4.97Under1.23

Both scoreGG3.77NG1.34

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@2.30

Over 1.5

44%

Over/Under 2.5@1.23

Under 2.5

81%

Both teams to score@1.34

75%

Double chance@1.25

80%

Season stats

Migori YouthKenya Police

1.0Goals per game0.8

0.5Conceded per game0.8

1.50Points per game1.25

25%Win rate25%

2Goal difference0

6Form, last 5 (pts)5

Migori Youth form

WDDD

H Mombasa Elite2–0

A Shabana1–1

H Mathare United0–0

H Kenya Police1–1

Kenya Police form

WDLDL

H Ulinzi Stars1–0

A Mombasa Elite0–0

H AFC Leopards1–2

A Migori Youth1–1

A Tusker2–1

Head to head

Migori

Draw

Kenya

These sides haven't met recently.

FKF Premier League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1GOR Mahia5+412

2KCB5+310

3AFC Leopards5+39

4Murang'a SEAL5+27

5Migori Youth4+26

6APS Bomet5+26

7Mara Sugar4+16

8Shabana4+16

9Kenya Police405

10Mathare United405

Match preview

Our model makes Migori Youth slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 36% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.25 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 1.5 goals in total (0.95 for Migori Youth, 0.53 for Kenya Police), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Migori Youth sit 5th on 6 points; Kenya Police are 9th on 5.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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