Over 1.5 goals@1.88
Over 1.5
53%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 33Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium
Midland
4–0FULL TIME
Atletico DE Rafaela
47% Midland
32% Draw
21% Atletico
OUR PICK
Midland to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.12
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.65
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.12X3.1524.73
Goals 2.5Over3.63Under1.36
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.36
Under 2.5
74%
Both teams to score@1.48
NG
68%
Double chance@1.27
1X
79%
Midland form
DWLWDA Atlanta0–0
H Gimnasia Y Tiro3–0
A San Martin Tucuman3–2
H Atletico DE Rafaela4–0
A Agropecuario0–0
Atletico DE Rafaela form
DWLLLA Colegiales1–1
H Quilmes1–0
A Midland4–0
H Atlanta2–3
A Gimnasia Y Tiro1–0
Head to head
1
Midland
0
Draw
1
Atletico
Oct 2026Midland – Atletico DE Rafaela4–0
May 2026Atletico DE Rafaela – Midland1–0
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Midland slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 32% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.12 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.8 goals in total (1.13 for Midland, 0.65 for Atletico DE Rafaela), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.