Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 13Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough
1st · 28 pts3–0FULL TIME
Charlton
20th · 14 pts75% Middlesbrough
15% Draw
10% Charlton
OUR PICK
Middlesbrough to win
Model probability 75% · fair odds
1.34
Expected goals
2.55 – 0.81
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.34X6.50210.28
Goals 2.5Over1.54Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.95NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.54
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.95
GG
51%
Double chance@1.11
1X
90%
Season stats
MiddlesbroughCharlton2.3Goals per game0.8
1.3Conceded per game1.6
2.15Points per game1.08
62%Win rate23%
13Goal difference-10
13Form, last 5 (pts)2
Middlesbrough form
No recent matches.
Charlton form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Middlesbrough
0
Draw
0
Charlton
These sides haven't met recently.
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Middlesbrough clear favourites, giving them a 75% chance of winning against 15% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.34 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (2.55 for Middlesbrough, 0.81 for Charlton), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Middlesbrough sit 1st on 28 points; Charlton are 20th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.