Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSaturday, 10 October 2026 · Riccardo Silva Stadium
Miami FC
8th · 36 pts0–2FULL TIME
Loudoun United
10th · 31 pts49% Miami
23% Draw
28% Loudoun
OUR PICK
Miami FC to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.31
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.04X4.3323.58
Goals 2.5Over1.66Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.64NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.64
GG
61%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
Miami FCLoudoun United1.3Goals per game1.3
1.6Conceded per game1.6
1.20Points per game1.03
30%Win rate20%
-10Goal difference-10
9Form, last 5 (pts)8
Miami FC form
DLLWWA Tampa Bay Rowdies1–1
H Charleston Battery1–2
H Loudoun United0–2
A Tampa Bay Rowdies1–2
H Sporting JAX4–1
Loudoun United form
WDLWDH Brooklyn4–3
A Birmingham Legion0–0
A Rhode Island1–0
A Miami FC0–2
H Indy Eleven1–1
Head to head
1
Miami
1
Draw
3
Loudoun
Oct 2026Miami FC – Loudoun United0–2
Mar 2026Loudoun United – Miami FC0–0
Aug 2025Loudoun United – Miami FC3–1
May 2025Miami FC – Loudoun United2–1
Aug 2024Loudoun United – Miami FC4–1
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Miami FC slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.80 for Miami FC, 1.31 for Loudoun United), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Miami FC sit 8th on 36 points; Loudoun United are 10th on 31.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.