Over 1.5 goals@1.59
Over 1.5
63%
FRALigue 2 · Matchday 9Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Stade Saint-Symphorien
Metz
10th · 14 pts3–2FULL TIME
Sochaux
13th · 11 pts50% Metz
28% Draw
22% Sochaux
OUR PICK
Metz to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.00
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.79
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.00X3.5624.56
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.57
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.68
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.68
NG
60%
Double chance@1.28
1X
78%
Season stats
MetzSochaux1.5Goals per game0.7
1.5Conceded per game1.3
1.27Points per game1.00
27%Win rate18%
0Goal difference-6
5Form, last 5 (pts)2
Metz form
LDWLDH PAU1–3
A Dunkerque1–1
H Sochaux3–2
A Dijon4–2
H Saint Etienne2–2
Sochaux form
LLLDWA Reims2–0
H Annecy1–3
A Metz3–2
H Boulogne1–1
H Neuchatel Xamax FC2–1
Head to head
4
Metz
1
Draw
0
Sochaux
Oct 2026Metz – Sochaux3–2
Jul 2026Metz – Sochaux4–1
May 2023Sochaux – Metz0–1
Oct 2022Metz – Sochaux0–0
Jul 2022Metz – Sochaux1–0
Ligue 2 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Saint Etienne11+1225
2Montpellier11+1024
3Nancy11+722
4Reims11+1021
5PAU11+520
6RED Star FC 9311-217
7Annecy11-116
8Dijon11+115
9Guingamp11+114
10Metz11014
Match preview
Our model makes Metz slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.00 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.35 for Metz, 0.79 for Sochaux), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Metz sit 10th on 14 points; Sochaux are 13th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.