Over 1.5 goals@1.36
Over 1.5
73%
FRALigue 2 · Matchday 11Friday, 30 October 2026 · Stade Saint-Symphorien
Metz
10th · 14 pts1–3FULL TIME
PAU
3rd · 20 pts41% Metz
26% Draw
32% PAU
OUR PICK
Metz to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.42
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.21
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.42X3.8223.08
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.94
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.94
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.89
GG
53%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
MetzPAU1.5Goals per game1.5
1.5Conceded per game1.0
1.27Points per game1.82
27%Win rate55%
0Goal difference5
5Form, last 5 (pts)15
Metz form
LDWLDH PAU1–3
A Dunkerque1–1
H Sochaux3–2
A Dijon4–2
H Saint Etienne2–2
PAU form
WWWWWA Metz1–3
H Grenoble2–1
A Guingamp1–2
H Laval3–2
A Toulouse2–3
Head to head
1
Metz
2
Draw
2
PAU
Oct 2026Metz – PAU1–3
Apr 2025PAU – Metz2–1
Jan 2025Metz – PAU0–0
Apr 2023PAU – Metz1–1
Oct 2022Metz – PAU1–0
Ligue 2 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Saint Etienne11+1225
2Montpellier11+1024
3PAU11+520
4Nancy10+419
5Reims10+818
6RED Star FC 9310+117
7Annecy11-116
8Dijon11+115
9Guingamp11+114
10Metz11014
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Metz 41%, the draw 26%, PAU 32%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.42 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.40 for Metz, 1.21 for PAU), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Metz sit 10th on 14 points; PAU are 3rd on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.