Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
AUSA-League · Matchday 2Saturday, 24 October 2026 · AAMI Park
Melbourne Victory
9th · 2 pts1–1FULL TIME
Melbourne City
7th · 4 pts44% Melbourne
24% Draw
31% Melbourne
OUR PICK
Melbourne Victory to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.25
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.31
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.25X4.1023.21
Goals 2.5Over1.79Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.71NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.71
GG
58%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
Melbourne VictoryMelbourne City1.0Goals per game1.3
1.3Conceded per game1.7
0.67Points per game1.33
0%Win rate33%
-1Goal difference-1
2Form, last 5 (pts)4
Melbourne Victory form
DLDLWH Central Coast Mariners1–1
A Persib Bandung2–0
H Melbourne City1–1
A Wellington Phoenix2–1
H FC Seoul3–0
Melbourne City form
WDLWLH Sydney2–1
A Melbourne Victory1–1
A Auckland3–1
A Oakleigh Cannons0–2
A Lions2–0
Head to head
2
Melbourne
1
Draw
2
Melbourne
Oct 2026Melbourne Victory – Melbourne City1–1
Feb 2026Melbourne City – Melbourne Victory1–3
Dec 2025Melbourne City – Melbourne Victory0–1
Nov 2025Melbourne Victory – Melbourne City0–2
May 2025Melbourne City – Melbourne Victory1–0
A-League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Wellington Phoenix3+69
2Western Sydney Wanderers3+35
3Macarthur3+15
4Brisbane Roar2+14
5Sydney304
6Auckland3-14
7Melbourne City3-14
8Perth Glory3+23
9Melbourne Victory3-12
10Central Coast Mariners3-22
Match preview
Our model makes Melbourne Victory slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.25 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.61 for Melbourne Victory, 1.31 for Melbourne City), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Melbourne Victory sit 9th on 2 points; Melbourne City are 7th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.