Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
AUSA-League · Matchday 3Sunday, 1 November 2026 · AAMI Park
Melbourne Victory
8th · 2 pts1–1FULL TIME
Central Coast Mariners
9th · 2 pts47% Melbourne
26% Draw
27% Central
OUR PICK
Melbourne Victory to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.14
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.06
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.14X3.8423.69
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.87
Both scoreGG1.98NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.87
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.98
GG
50%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Melbourne VictoryCentral Coast Mariners1.0Goals per game1.0
1.3Conceded per game1.7
0.67Points per game0.67
0%Win rate0%
-1Goal difference-2
2Form, last 5 (pts)2
Melbourne Victory form
DLDLWH Central Coast Mariners1–1
A Persib Bandung2–0
H Melbourne City1–1
A Wellington Phoenix2–1
H FC Seoul3–0
Central Coast Mariners form
DLDLLA Melbourne Victory1–1
A Wellington Phoenix2–0
H Newcastle Jets2–2
A Western Sydney Wanderers5–1
A Vanuatu United1–0
Head to head
2
Melbourne
2
Draw
1
Central
Nov 2026Melbourne Victory – Central Coast Mariners1–1
Mar 2026Melbourne Victory – Central Coast Mariners4–1
Feb 2026Central Coast Mariners – Melbourne Victory1–0
Mar 2025Melbourne Victory – Central Coast Mariners3–0
Oct 2024Central Coast Mariners – Melbourne Victory0–0
A-League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Wellington Phoenix3+69
2Western Sydney Wanderers3+35
3Macarthur3+15
4Brisbane Roar2+14
5Sydney304
6Auckland3-14
7Melbourne City3-14
8Melbourne Victory3-12
9Central Coast Mariners3-22
10Newcastle Jets3-32
Match preview
Our model makes Melbourne Victory slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.14 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.48 for Melbourne Victory, 1.06 for Central Coast Mariners), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Melbourne Victory sit 8th on 2 points; Central Coast Mariners are 9th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.