Over 1.5 goals@1.35
Over 1.5
74%
AUSA-League · Matchday 4Saturday, 7 November 2026 · AAMI Park
Melbourne City
7th · 4 pts09:40KICK-OFF WAT
Western Sydney Wanderers
2nd · 5 pts31% Melbourne
26% Draw
44% Western
OUR PICK
Western Sydney Wanderers to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.30
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.46
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.27X3.8722.30
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.88NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.88
GG
53%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Melbourne CityWestern Sydney Wanderers1.3Goals per game1.7
1.7Conceded per game0.7
1.33Points per game1.67
33%Win rate33%
-1Goal difference3
4Form, last 5 (pts)5
Melbourne City form
WDLWLH Sydney2–1
A Melbourne Victory1–1
A Auckland3–1
A Oakleigh Cannons0–2
A Lions2–0
Western Sydney Wanderers form
WWDWWA Macarthur0–1
H Auckland5–2
A Sydney0–0
H Central Coast Mariners5–1
A Auckland1–3
Head to head
1
Melbourne
3
Draw
1
Western
Apr 2026Melbourne City – Western Sydney Wanderers3–0
Feb 2026Western Sydney Wanderers – Melbourne City1–1
Oct 2025Western Sydney Wanderers – Melbourne City1–1
Apr 2025Western Sydney Wanderers – Melbourne City2–2
Nov 2024Melbourne City – Western Sydney Wanderers0–2
A-League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Wellington Phoenix3+69
2Western Sydney Wanderers3+35
3Macarthur3+15
4Brisbane Roar2+14
5Sydney304
6Auckland3-14
7Melbourne City3-14
8Melbourne Victory3-12
9Central Coast Mariners3-22
10Newcastle Jets3-32
Match preview
Our model makes Western Sydney Wanderers slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.30 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.18 for Melbourne City, 1.46 for Western Sydney Wanderers), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Melbourne City sit 7th on 4 points; Western Sydney Wanderers are 2nd on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.