Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
68%
AUSA-League · Matchday 3Saturday, 31 October 2026 · AAMI Park
Melbourne City
7th · 4 pts2–1FULL TIME
Sydney
5th · 4 pts32% Melbourne
28% Draw
41% Sydney
OUR PICK
Sydney to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.45
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.28
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.17X3.6122.45
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.73
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.92
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.73
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.92
NG
52%
Double chance@1.38
12
72%
Season stats
Melbourne CitySydney1.3Goals per game1.0
1.7Conceded per game1.0
1.33Points per game1.33
33%Win rate33%
-1Goal difference0
4Form, last 5 (pts)4
Melbourne City form
WDLWLH Sydney2–1
A Melbourne Victory1–1
A Auckland3–1
A Oakleigh Cannons0–2
A Lions2–0
Sydney form
LWDLWA Melbourne City2–1
H Adelaide United2–1
H Western Sydney Wanderers0–0
H Melbourne Victory0–2
A SD Raiders0–1
Head to head
4
Melbourne
1
Draw
0
Sydney
Oct 2026Melbourne City – Sydney2–1
Mar 2026Sydney – Melbourne City0–1
Jan 2026Melbourne City – Sydney0–0
May 2025Melbourne City – Sydney5–1
Mar 2025Sydney – Melbourne City2–3
A-League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Wellington Phoenix3+69
2Western Sydney Wanderers3+35
3Macarthur3+15
4Brisbane Roar2+14
5Sydney304
6Auckland3-14
7Melbourne City3-14
8Melbourne Victory3-12
9Central Coast Mariners3-22
10Newcastle Jets3-32
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Melbourne City 32%, the draw 28%, Sydney 41%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.45 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.09 for Melbourne City, 1.28 for Sydney), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Melbourne City sit 7th on 4 points; Sydney are 5th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.