Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
73%
GHAPremier League · Matchday 6Sunday, 11 October 2026 · TNA Park
Medeama
1st · 18 pts3–1FULL TIME
Heart of Lions
12th · 11 pts57% Medeama
24% Draw
19% Heart
OUR PICK
Medeama to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.75
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.87
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.75X4.1825.24
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.90
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.90
NG
53%
Double chance@1.24
1X
81%
Season stats
MedeamaHeart of Lions1.7Goals per game1.1
0.9Conceded per game1.4
2.00Points per game1.22
56%Win rate33%
7Goal difference-3
10Form, last 5 (pts)6
Medeama form
WLWWWH Aduana Stars1–0
A Samartex2–1
H Heart of Lions3–1
A Debibi United0–1
H Port City1–0
Heart of Lions form
WLLLWH Bechem United2–1
A Bibiani Gold Stars2–1
H Berekum Chelsea0–2
A Medeama3–1
H Ashanti Gold3–2
Head to head
3
Medeama
1
Draw
1
Heart
Oct 2026Medeama – Heart of Lions3–1
May 2026Medeama – Heart of Lions5–2
Dec 2025Heart of Lions – Medeama0–1
Apr 2025Heart of Lions – Medeama1–0
Oct 2024Medeama – Heart of Lions0–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Medeama9+718
2Samartex9+518
3Hearts of Oak9+617
4Aduana Stars9+416
5Port City9+415
6Ashanti Gold9+214
7Swedru All Blacks9+214
8Bechem United9+113
9Asante Kotoko9013
10Basake Holy Stars9-412
Match preview
Our model makes Medeama clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.75 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.70 for Medeama, 0.87 for Heart of Lions), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Medeama sit 1st on 18 points; Heart of Lions are 12th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.