Over 1.5 goals@1.73
Over 1.5
58%
ALGLigue 1 · Matchday 6Friday, 16 October 2026
MC Alger
6th · 13 pts16:00KICK-OFF WAT
ES Setif
9th · 8 pts55% MC
28% Draw
16% ES
OUR PICK
MC Alger to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.80
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.59
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.80X3.5326.15
Goals 2.5Over3.04Under1.44
Both scoreGG2.86NG1.49
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.44
Under 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.49
NG
67%
Double chance@1.19
1X
84%
Season stats
MC AlgerES Setif1.4Goals per game1.3
0.2Conceded per game1.0
2.60Points per game1.14
80%Win rate29%
6Goal difference2
13Form, last 5 (pts)8
MC Alger form
WWWLH Khenchela2–0
A US Biskra0–1
H Enugu Rangers3–0
A Enugu Rangers2–0
ES Setif form
WLDA ASO Chlef1–2
H Témouchent1–2
H JS Kabylie1–1
Head to head
2
MC
1
Draw
2
ES
May 2026ES Setif – MC Alger1–0
Dec 2025MC Alger – ES Setif2–0
May 2025MC Alger – ES Setif4–1
Dec 2024ES Setif – MC Alger0–0
Mar 2024ES Setif – MC Alger1–0
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1CR Belouizdad7+517
2JS Kabylie7+816
3MC Oran7+515
4USM Alger7+514
5MB Rouisset8+314
6MC Alger5+613
7Olympique Akbou7+311
8Témouchent8-39
9ES Setif7+28
10JS El Biar808
Match preview
Our model makes MC Alger clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.80 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.35 for MC Alger, 0.59 for ES Setif), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
MC Alger sit 6th on 13 points; ES Setif are 9th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.