Over 1.5 goals@2.20
Over 1.5
46%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 6Saturday, 7 November 2026
Mathare United
10th · 5 pts13:00KICK-OFF WAT
Posta Rangers FC
15th · 4 pts49% Mathare
34% Draw
17% Posta
OUR PICK
Mathare United to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.49
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.04X2.9425.87
Goals 2.5Over4.72Under1.25
Both scoreGG3.77NG1.34
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.25
Under 2.5
80%
Both teams to score@1.34
NG
75%
Double chance@1.21
1X
83%
Season stats
Mathare UnitedPosta Rangers FC0.5Goals per game0.5
0.5Conceded per game1.5
1.25Points per game1.00
25%Win rate25%
0Goal difference-4
5Form, last 5 (pts)4
Mathare United form
WDLDWH Tusker2–1
A Migori Youth0–0
A KCB1–0
H APS Bomet0–0
H Bandari1–0
Posta Rangers FC form
DWLLLA Bandari0–0
H KCB1–0
A Murang'a SEAL5–1
H Shabana0–1
H Ulinzi Stars0–1
Head to head
2
Mathare
1
Draw
2
Posta
Jan 2026Posta Rangers FC – Mathare United1–1
Sept 2025Mathare United – Posta Rangers FC1–2
Apr 2025Mathare United – Posta Rangers FC3–2
Nov 2024Posta Rangers FC – Mathare United0–2
Apr 2023Mathare United – Posta Rangers FC0–2
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
4Murang'a SEAL5+27
5Migori Youth4+26
6APS Bomet5+26
7Mara Sugar4+16
8Shabana4+16
9Kenya Police405
10Mathare United405
Match preview
Our model makes Mathare United clear favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 34% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.5 goals in total (1.05 for Mathare United, 0.49 for Posta Rangers FC), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Mathare United sit 10th on 5 points; Posta Rangers FC are 15th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.