Over 1.5 goals@2.08
Over 1.5
48%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 1Saturday, 10 October 2026
Mathare United
11th · 5 pts0–0FULL TIME
APS Bomet
7th · 6 pts28% Mathare
35% Draw
37% APS
OUR PICK
APS Bomet to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.70
Expected goals
0.73 – 0.89
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.57X2.8722.70
Goals 2.5Over4.29Under1.29
Both scoreGG3.04NG1.44
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.29
Under 2.5
78%
Both teams to score@1.44
NG
69%
Double chance@1.39
X2
72%
Season stats
Mathare UnitedAPS Bomet0.6Goals per game0.8
0.8Conceded per game0.4
1.00Points per game1.20
20%Win rate20%
-1Goal difference2
5Form, last 5 (pts)6
Mathare United form
WDLDWH Tusker2–1
A Migori Youth0–0
A KCB1–0
H APS Bomet0–0
H Bandari1–0
APS Bomet form
DWDLDH Murang'a SEAL0–0
H 3K3–0
A Nairobi United1–1
H GOR Mahia0–1
A Mathare United0–0
Head to head
0
Mathare
2
Draw
1
APS
Oct 2026Mathare United – APS Bomet0–0
May 2026Mathare United – APS Bomet0–2
Nov 2025APS Bomet – Mathare United1–1
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
43K5-18
5Murang'a SEAL5+27
6Migori Youth4+26
7APS Bomet5+26
8Mara Sugar4+16
9Shabana4+16
10Kenya Police405
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Mathare United 28%, the draw 35%, APS Bomet 37%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.70 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.6 goals in total (0.73 for Mathare United, 0.89 for APS Bomet), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Mathare United sit 11th on 5 points; APS Bomet are 7th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.