Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 9Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Orange Vélodrome
Marseille
9th · 12 pts20:45KICK-OFF WAT
Toulouse
11th · 10 pts54% Marseille
21% Draw
25% Toulouse
OUR PICK
Marseille to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.87
Expected goals
2.11 – 1.41
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.87X4.7723.92
Goals 2.5Over1.47Under2.95
Both scoreGG1.51NG2.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.47
Over 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.51
GG
66%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
MarseilleToulouse2.3Goals per game1.5
1.6Conceded per game1.4
1.50Points per game1.25
50%Win rate25%
5Goal difference1
9Form, last 5 (pts)9
Marseille form
WLWLWH Le Havre4–3
A Sturm Graz1–0
A Angers2–5
H Olympiakos Piraeus0–1
A Estac Troyes0–2
Toulouse form
DWDLWH Estac Troyes0–0
A Le Mans0–3
A Monaco2–2
H PAU2–3
H Le Havre3–2
Head to head
3
Marseille
2
Draw
0
Toulouse
Mar 2026Toulouse – Marseille0–1
Mar 2026Marseille – Toulouse2–2
Nov 2025Marseille – Toulouse2–2
Apr 2025Marseille – Toulouse3–2
Aug 2024Toulouse – Marseille1–3
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Rennes9+116
4Monaco8+415
5Lyon8+614
6Paris FC8+414
7Nice9+114
8Lens9+313
9Marseille8+512
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Marseille slight favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.87 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.11 for Marseille, 1.41 for Toulouse), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Marseille sit 9th on 12 points; Toulouse are 11th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.