Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 8Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Orange Vélodrome
Marseille
6th · 15 pts4–3FULL TIME
Le Havre
18th · 2 pts74% Marseille
16% Draw
10% Le
OUR PICK
Marseille to win
Model probability 74% · fair odds
1.34
Expected goals
2.49 – 0.79
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.34X6.34210.17
Goals 2.5Over1.57Under2.62
Both scoreGG2.00NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@2.00
GG
50%
Double chance@1.11
1X
90%
Season stats
MarseilleLe Havre2.2Goals per game1.0
1.4Conceded per game2.2
1.67Points per game0.22
56%Win rate0%
7Goal difference-11
12Form, last 5 (pts)0
Marseille form
WWLWLH Toulouse2–0
H Le Havre4–3
A Sturm Graz1–0
A Angers2–5
H Olympiakos Piraeus0–1
Le Havre form
LLLLWH Paris Saint Germain1–5
A Marseille4–3
H Auxerre1–3
A Lille1–0
H Boulogne6–1
Head to head
5
Marseille
0
Draw
0
Le
Oct 2026Marseille – Le Havre4–3
May 2026Le Havre – Marseille0–1
Oct 2025Marseille – Le Havre6–2
May 2025Le Havre – Marseille1–3
Jan 2025Marseille – Le Havre5–1
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Marseille clear favourites, giving them a 74% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.34 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.49 for Marseille, 0.79 for Le Havre), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Marseille sit 6th on 15 points; Le Havre are 18th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.