Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 10Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Estádio do Marítimo
Maritimo
14th · 8 pts0–2FULL TIME
Santa Clara
4th · 21 pts17% Maritimo
23% Draw
60% Santa
OUR PICK
Santa Clara to win
Model probability 60% · fair odds
1.67
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.74
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.91X4.2821.67
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.87
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.83
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.87
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.83
NG
55%
Double chance@1.20
X2
83%
Season stats
MaritimoSanta Clara0.9Goals per game1.5
2.1Conceded per game0.6
0.80Points per game2.10
20%Win rate60%
-12Goal difference9
1Form, last 5 (pts)10
Maritimo form
LLLWLH Santa Clara0–2
A Sporting CP2–1
A Vitória SC5–0
A Alcochetense1–2
H FC Porto1–2
Santa Clara form
WLLWDA Maritimo0–2
H Benfica1–2
A Mafra3–2
A Casa Pia0–1
H SC Braga0–0
Head to head
1
Maritimo
1
Draw
3
Santa
Nov 2026Maritimo – Santa Clara0–2
Apr 2024Maritimo – Santa Clara0–0
Dec 2023Santa Clara – Maritimo2–1
Feb 2023Maritimo – Santa Clara3–1
Sept 2022Santa Clara – Maritimo2–1
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente9+114
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca9011
Match preview
Our model makes Santa Clara clear favourites, giving them a 60% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.67 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (0.80 for Maritimo, 1.74 for Santa Clara), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Maritimo sit 14th on 8 points; Santa Clara are 4th on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.