Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 8Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Estádio do Marítimo
Maritimo
14th · 8 pts1–2FULL TIME
FC Porto
1st · 30 pts5% Maritimo
12% Draw
83% FC
OUR PICK
FC Porto to win
Model probability 83% · fair odds
1.21
Expected goals
0.55 – 2.73
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X2119.28X8.3321.21
Goals 2.5Over1.58Under2.55
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.65
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.58
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.65
NG
60%
Double chance@1.05
X2
95%
Season stats
MaritimoFC Porto0.9Goals per game2.5
2.1Conceded per game0.4
0.80Points per game3.00
20%Win rate100%
-12Goal difference21
1Form, last 5 (pts)15
Maritimo form
LLLWLH Santa Clara0–2
A Sporting CP2–1
A Vitória SC5–0
A Alcochetense1–2
H FC Porto1–2
FC Porto form
WWWLLH Estoril4–0
H Academico Viseu1–0
A GIL Vicente0–1
H PSV Eindhoven0–1
A Real Betis3–2
Head to head
0
Maritimo
1
Draw
4
FC
Oct 2026Maritimo – FC Porto1–2
Feb 2023Maritimo – FC Porto0–2
Aug 2022FC Porto – Maritimo5–1
Jan 2022FC Porto – Maritimo2–1
Aug 2021Maritimo – FC Porto1–1
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica10+1925
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente10+115
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca10-111
Match preview
Our model makes FC Porto clear favourites, giving them a 83% chance of winning against 12% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.21 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (0.55 for Maritimo, 2.73 for FC Porto), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Maritimo sit 14th on 8 points; FC Porto are 1st on 30.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.