Over 1.5 goals@1.81
Over 1.5
55%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 2Monday, 19 October 2026
Mara Sugar
11th · 6 pts2–1FULL TIME
Mombasa Elite
18th · 1 pts51% Mara
30% Draw
19% Mombasa
OUR PICK
Mara Sugar to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.96
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.62
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.96X3.3125.34
Goals 2.5Over3.37Under1.39
Both scoreGG2.86NG1.49
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.39
Under 2.5
72%
Both teams to score@1.49
NG
67%
Double chance@1.23
1X
81%
Season stats
Mara SugarMombasa Elite1.0Goals per game0.4
1.2Conceded per game1.6
1.20Points per game0.20
20%Win rate0%
-1Goal difference-6
6Form, last 5 (pts)1
Mara Sugar form
LDDWDA Tusker3–1
H AFC Leopards0–0
A Ulinzi Stars0–0
H Mombasa Elite2–1
A 3K2–2
Mombasa Elite form
LLDLLA Migori Youth2–0
A KCB3–1
H Kenya Police0–0
A Mara Sugar2–1
H Homeboyz0–1
Head to head
4
Mara
1
Draw
0
Mombasa
Oct 2026Mara Sugar – Mombasa Elite2–1
Mar 2024Mombasa Elite – Mara Sugar0–2
Nov 2023Mara Sugar – Mombasa Elite3–2
Jun 2023Mombasa Elite – Mara Sugar0–0
Mar 2023Mara Sugar – Mombasa Elite2–1
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
4Kenya Police5+18
53K5-18
6Murang'a SEAL5+27
7Tusker3+36
8Migori Youth4+26
9APS Bomet5+26
10Shabana506
Match preview
Our model makes Mara Sugar clear favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.96 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.23 for Mara Sugar, 0.62 for Mombasa Elite), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Mara Sugar sit 11th on 6 points; Mombasa Elite are 18th on 1.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.