Over 1.5 goals@2.08
Over 1.5
48%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 6Saturday, 7 November 2026
Mara Sugar
8th · 6 pts13:00KICK-OFF WAT
Migori Youth
6th · 6 pts34% Mara
35% Draw
31% Migori
OUR PICK
Draw
Model probability 35% · fair odds
2.85
Expected goals
0.84 – 0.78
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.93X2.8523.25
Goals 2.5Over4.29Under1.29
Both scoreGG3.04NG1.44
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.29
Under 2.5
78%
Both teams to score@1.44
NG
69%
Double chance@1.44
1X
69%
Season stats
Mara SugarMigori Youth1.0Goals per game1.0
0.8Conceded per game0.5
1.50Points per game1.50
25%Win rate25%
1Goal difference2
6Form, last 5 (pts)6
Mara Sugar form
LDDWDA Tusker3–1
H AFC Leopards0–0
A Ulinzi Stars0–0
H Mombasa Elite2–1
A 3K2–2
Migori Youth form
WDDDH Mombasa Elite2–0
A Shabana1–1
H Mathare United0–0
H Kenya Police1–1
Head to head
2
Mara
2
Draw
1
Migori
Apr 2024Migori Youth – Mara Sugar0–1
Sept 2023Mara Sugar – Migori Youth1–1
May 2023Migori Youth – Mara Sugar2–1
Jan 2023Mara Sugar – Migori Youth0–0
Jun 2022Mara Sugar – Migori Youth4–0
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
43K5-18
5Murang'a SEAL5+27
6Migori Youth4+26
7APS Bomet5+26
8Mara Sugar4+16
9Shabana4+16
10Kenya Police405
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Mara Sugar 34%, the draw 35%, Migori Youth 31%.
Our fair price for "Draw" is 2.85 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.6 goals in total (0.84 for Mara Sugar, 0.78 for Migori Youth), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Mara Sugar sit 8th on 6 points; Migori Youth are 6th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.