Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
ITASerie B · Matchday 7Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Stadio Danilo Martelli
Mantova
4th · 18 pts0–2FULL TIME
Palermo
1st · 26 pts43% Mantova
23% Draw
34% Palermo
OUR PICK
Mantova to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.34
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.56
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.34X4.3822.91
Goals 2.5Over1.55Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.53NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.55
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.53
GG
65%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
MantovaPalermo1.5Goals per game2.4
1.1Conceded per game1.2
1.80Points per game2.60
50%Win rate80%
4Goal difference12
7Form, last 5 (pts)13
Mantova form
DLWLWA Modena1–1
H Cremonese0–2
A Virtus Entella0–1
H Palermo0–2
A Catanzaro1–3
Palermo form
WDWWWH Vicenza Virtus3–1
A Pisa3–3
H Carrarese2–1
A Mantova0–2
A Empoli2–4
Head to head
0
Mantova
2
Draw
3
Palermo
Oct 2026Mantova – Palermo0–2
Sept 2026Palermo – Mantova5–2
Mar 2026Palermo – Mantova2–1
Jan 2026Mantova – Palermo1–1
Feb 2025Palermo – Mantova2–2
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Mantova 43%, the draw 23%, Palermo 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.34 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.76 for Mantova, 1.56 for Palermo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Mantova sit 4th on 18 points; Palermo are 1st on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.