Over 1.5 goals@1.44
Over 1.5
70%
ITASerie B · Matchday 9Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · Stadio Danilo Martelli
Mantova
4th · 18 pts0–2FULL TIME
Cremonese
11th · 12 pts59% Mantova
24% Draw
17% Cremonese
OUR PICK
Mantova to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.70
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.76
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.70X4.1325.91
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.77
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.76
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.77
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.76
NG
57%
Double chance@1.20
1X
83%
Season stats
MantovaCremonese1.5Goals per game1.0
1.1Conceded per game1.1
1.80Points per game1.20
50%Win rate30%
4Goal difference-1
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Mantova form
DLWLWA Modena1–1
H Cremonese0–2
A Virtus Entella0–1
H Palermo0–2
A Catanzaro1–3
Cremonese form
WWLLDH Benevento2–0
A Mantova0–2
H Juve Stabia0–1
A Pisa3–1
A Arezzo0–0
Head to head
1
Mantova
0
Draw
2
Cremonese
Oct 2026Mantova – Cremonese0–2
Apr 2025Cremonese – Mantova4–2
Nov 2024Mantova – Cremonese1–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Mantova clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.70 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.66 for Mantova, 0.76 for Cremonese), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Mantova sit 4th on 18 points; Cremonese are 11th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.