Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 8Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Old Trafford
Manchester United
17th · 7 pts0–3FULL TIME
Bournemouth
7th · 12 pts45% Manchester
24% Draw
31% Bournemouth
OUR PICK
Manchester United to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.23
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.30
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.23X4.1123.25
Goals 2.5Over1.79Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.71NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.71
GG
58%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
Manchester UnitedBournemouth1.1Goals per game1.6
1.7Conceded per game1.4
0.78Points per game1.33
11%Win rate33%
-5Goal difference1
3Form, last 5 (pts)9
Manchester United form
LLLDLA Chelsea2–0
H Bournemouth0–3
A Como4–1
A Leeds1–1
A Atletico Madrid2–0
Bournemouth form
WWWWWH Leeds2–0
H Aston Villa3–0
A Manchester United0–3
H AC Milan3–0
H Sunderland2–0
Head to head
1
Manchester
3
Draw
1
Bournemouth
Oct 2026Manchester United – Bournemouth0–3
Mar 2026Bournemouth – Manchester United2–2
Dec 2025Manchester United – Bournemouth4–4
Jul 2025Manchester United – Bournemouth4–1
Apr 2025Bournemouth – Manchester United1–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Manchester United slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.23 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.62 for Manchester United, 1.30 for Bournemouth), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Manchester United sit 17th on 7 points; Bournemouth are 7th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.