Over 1.5 goals@1.06
Over 1.5
94%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City
10th · 6 pts2–4FULL TIME
Paris Saint Germain
1st · 9 pts51% Manchester
19% Draw
31% Paris
OUR PICK
Manchester City to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.98
Expected goals
2.57 – 2.01
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.98X5.3323.26
Goals 2.5Over1.20Under5.55
Both scoreGG1.25NG4.72
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.20
Over 2.5
83%
Both teams to score@1.25
GG
80%
Double chance@1.23
12
81%
Season stats
Manchester CityParis Saint Germain3.0Goals per game4.7
1.7Conceded per game1.7
2.00Points per game3.00
67%Win rate100%
4Goal difference9
6Form, last 5 (pts)9
Manchester City form
LDLWWH Brighton0–1
H Brighton2–2
A Aston Villa2–1
H AEK Athens FC5–1
H Ipswich3–2
Paris Saint Germain form
WWWWWA Le Havre1–5
H Lyon2–0
H Barcelona4–2
A Strasbourg1–3
A Manchester City2–4
Head to head
2
Manchester
0
Draw
3
Paris
Oct 2026Manchester City – Paris Saint Germain2–4
Jan 2025Paris Saint Germain – Manchester City4–2
Nov 2021Manchester City – Paris Saint Germain2–1
Sept 2021Paris Saint Germain – Manchester City2–0
May 2021Manchester City – Paris Saint Germain2–0
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Manchester City slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.98 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.6 goals in total (2.57 for Manchester City, 2.01 for Paris Saint Germain), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Manchester City sit 10th on 6 points; Paris Saint Germain are 1st on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.