Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
88%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 7Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City
2nd · 21 pts3–2FULL TIME
Ipswich
14th · 11 pts71% Manchester
16% Draw
13% Ipswich
OUR PICK
Manchester City to win
Model probability 71% · fair odds
1.42
Expected goals
2.63 – 1.07
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.42X6.1527.56
Goals 2.5Over1.40Under3.25
Both scoreGG1.64NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.40
Over 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.64
GG
61%
Double chance@1.15
1X
87%
Season stats
Manchester CityIpswich2.2Goals per game1.6
1.1Conceded per game2.0
2.33Points per game1.22
78%Win rate33%
10Goal difference-4
9Form, last 5 (pts)5
Manchester City form
LDLWWH Brighton0–1
H Brighton2–2
A Aston Villa2–1
H AEK Athens FC5–1
H Ipswich3–2
Ipswich form
DDLWLA Hull City2–2
H Nottingham Forest1–1
A Manchester City3–2
H Fulham2–1
A Everton1–0
Head to head
3
Manchester
0
Draw
0
Ipswich
Oct 2026Manchester City – Ipswich3–2
Jan 2025Ipswich – Manchester City0–6
Aug 2024Manchester City – Ipswich4–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Everton9013
8Bournemouth9+112
9Tottenham9012
10Aston Villa9-312
Match preview
Our model makes Manchester City clear favourites, giving them a 71% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.42 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (2.63 for Manchester City, 1.07 for Ipswich), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Manchester City sit 2nd on 21 points; Ipswich are 14th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.