Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 9Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City
1st · 21 pts0–1FULL TIME
Brighton
3rd · 19 pts34% Manchester
23% Draw
43% Brighton
OUR PICK
Brighton to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.32
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.76
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.95X4.3722.32
Goals 2.5Over1.56Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.54NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.56
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.54
GG
65%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
Manchester CityBrighton2.2Goals per game2.7
1.1Conceded per game0.8
2.33Points per game2.11
78%Win rate67%
10Goal difference17
9Form, last 5 (pts)12
Manchester City form
No recent matches.
Brighton form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Manchester
0
Draw
0
Brighton
These sides haven't met recently.
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Manchester City9+1021
2Arsenal8+821
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool8+315
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Manchester City 34%, the draw 23%, Brighton 43%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.32 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.54 for Manchester City, 1.76 for Brighton), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Manchester City sit 1st on 21 points; Brighton are 3rd on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.