Over 1.5 goals@1.50
Over 1.5
67%
BHRPremier League · Matchday 4Saturday, 10 October 2026
Manama
11th · 6 pts1–3FULL TIME
Al Ahli
5th · 9 pts42% Manama
28% Draw
30% Al
OUR PICK
Manama to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.38
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.02
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.38X3.5523.36
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.67
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.85
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.67
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.85
NG
54%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
ManamaAl Ahli1.3Goals per game1.0
2.0Conceded per game1.0
0.86Points per game1.29
14%Win rate29%
-5Goal difference0
5Form, last 5 (pts)5
Manama form
LDDLLH Khalidiya0–2
A Al-Hidd1–1
A Al Ittifaq Maqaba2–2
H Al Ahli1–3
A Muharraq3–1
Al Ahli form
DDLWLH East Riffa0–0
A Malkiya1–1
H Khalidiya1–2
A Manama1–3
H Al Ittifaq Maqaba0–2
Head to head
0
Manama
1
Draw
4
Al
Oct 2026Manama – Al Ahli1–3
Apr 2025Manama – Al Ahli0–1
Nov 2024Al Ahli – Manama2–0
Apr 2024Al Ahli – Manama0–0
Feb 2024Al Ahli – Manama3–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al Riffa7+1115
2Khalidiya7+1015
3Al Ittifaq Maqaba7+514
4Muharraq7+411
5Al Ahli709
6East Riffa7-58
7Sitra7-28
8Al Najma7-48
9A'Ali7-38
10Al-Hidd707
Match preview
Our model makes Manama slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.38 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.27 for Manama, 1.02 for Al Ahli), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Manama sit 11th on 6 points; Al Ahli are 5th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.