Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
SWEAllsvenskan · Matchday 23Monday, 12 October 2026 · Eleda Stadion
Malmo FF
7th · 40 pts1–0FULL TIME
Kalmar FF
13th · 22 pts63% Malmo
21% Draw
16% Kalmar
OUR PICK
Malmo FF to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.59
Expected goals
1.96 – 0.86
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.59X4.7326.34
Goals 2.5Over1.87Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.89NG1.98
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.87
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.98
NG
50%
Double chance@1.19
1X
84%
Season stats
Malmo FFKalmar FF1.6Goals per game0.9
1.3Conceded per game1.6
1.48Points per game0.85
44%Win rate23%
6Goal difference-19
7Form, last 5 (pts)3
Malmo FF form
LWDLWH Hammarby FF1–2
A Halmstad0–3
A IF Elfsborg0–0
H BK Hacken0–1
H Kalmar FF1–0
Kalmar FF form
LLWLDH Gais0–1
H IF Brommapojkarna0–3
A Degerfors IF1–2
A Malmo FF1–0
A IFK Norrkoping0–0
Head to head
2
Malmo
3
Draw
0
Kalmar
Oct 2026Malmo FF – Kalmar FF1–0
Jul 2026Kalmar FF – Malmo FF2–2
Mar 2026Malmo FF – Kalmar FF1–1
Aug 2024Kalmar FF – Malmo FF2–2
May 2024Malmo FF – Kalmar FF5–0
Allsvenskan table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hammarby FF27+3455
2Sirius26+2255
3Djurgardens IF27+3052
4BK Hacken27+1849
5IF Elfsborg27+1446
6Vasteras SK FK27+244
7Malmo FF27+640
8AIK Stockholm26-338
9IFK Goteborg27-1038
10Gais26+634
Match preview
Our model makes Malmo FF clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.59 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.96 for Malmo FF, 0.86 for Kalmar FF), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Malmo FF sit 7th on 40 points; Kalmar FF are 13th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.