Over 1.5 goals@1.55
Over 1.5
65%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 9Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
Mallorca
5th · 22 pts3–1FULL TIME
Las Palmas
11th · 17 pts56% Mallorca
26% Draw
18% Las
OUR PICK
Mallorca to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.79
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.71
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.79X3.8025.63
Goals 2.5Over2.48Under1.61
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.65
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Under 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.65
NG
61%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
MallorcaLas Palmas1.3Goals per game1.4
0.6Conceded per game1.8
1.83Points per game1.42
50%Win rate42%
8Goal difference-4
9Form, last 5 (pts)7
Mallorca form
WDDWDH Cadiz2–1
A Leganes1–1
A Eibar1–1
H Las Palmas3–1
A Girona0–0
Las Palmas form
WWLLDA RSD Alcalá1–3
H Real Sociedad II1–0
H Castellón0–3
A Mallorca3–1
H Valladolid2–2
Head to head
4
Mallorca
1
Draw
0
Las
Oct 2026Mallorca – Las Palmas3–1
Feb 2025Mallorca – Las Palmas3–1
Nov 2024Las Palmas – Mallorca2–3
May 2024Mallorca – Las Palmas1–0
Aug 2023Las Palmas – Mallorca1–1
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Mallorca12+822
6Sporting Gijon12022
7Girona12+1121
8Burgos12+421
9Oviedo12+218
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Mallorca clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.79 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.49 for Mallorca, 0.71 for Las Palmas), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Mallorca sit 5th on 22 points; Las Palmas are 11th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.