Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
BHRPremier League · Matchday 4Friday, 9 October 2026
Malkiya
12th · 2 pts1–1FULL TIME
Al Riffa
1st · 15 pts6% Malkiya
14% Draw
80% Al
OUR PICK
Al Riffa to win
Model probability 80% · fair odds
1.25
Expected goals
0.55 – 2.50
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X2116.13X7.1821.25
Goals 2.5Over1.71Under2.30
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.63
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.63
NG
61%
Double chance@1.07
X2
94%
Season stats
MalkiyaAl Riffa0.3Goals per game2.4
1.9Conceded per game0.9
0.29Points per game2.14
0%Win rate57%
-11Goal difference11
2Form, last 5 (pts)9
Malkiya form
LDLDLA Al Ittifaq Maqaba3–0
H Al Ahli1–1
A Muharraq3–0
H Al Riffa1–1
A A'Ali1–0
Al Riffa form
DWWWLH Al Najma2–2
H Qatar SC4–1
A Sitra2–3
H East Riffa4–0
A Al Nasr3–0
Head to head
1
Malkiya
2
Draw
2
Al
Oct 2026Malkiya – Al Riffa1–1
May 2026Malkiya – Al Riffa0–2
Jan 2026Al Riffa – Malkiya2–0
May 2025Malkiya – Al Riffa2–2
Feb 2025Al Riffa – Malkiya0–2
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al Riffa7+1115
2Khalidiya7+1015
3Al Ittifaq Maqaba7+514
4Muharraq7+411
5Al Ahli709
6East Riffa7-58
7Sitra7-28
8Al Najma7-48
9A'Ali7-38
10Al-Hidd707
Match preview
Our model makes Al Riffa clear favourites, giving them a 80% chance of winning against 14% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.25 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (0.55 for Malkiya, 2.50 for Al Riffa), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Malkiya sit 12th on 2 points; Al Riffa are 1st on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.